Cracking the Bookmaker Code

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There are two stages of analysis that a bookmaker goes through, namely static analysis and dynamic analysis. Using a series of tools and systems, the bookmaker is able to achieve high prediction accuracy.

Static Analysis

Step 1: The bookmaker gathers all useful information (public and nonpublic) about the match concerned. For instance, he may look at factors such as players injury, morale of the team, training etc. This information provide for a qualitative form of analysis.

Step 2: The data is passed to a statistician who must process all information and turn it into a starting price (odds) available for trading or betting. In Betfair, this is known as the Betfair starting price (SP). This price is the initial price released to the public before any betting starts. In order to calculate this price accurately, he uses several systems which involve rating systems, goal scoring systems, last 6 matches system etc. All these systems will be discussed in the section on football forecasting.

Dynamic Analysis

Step 3: Once the information is released to the public, there would be statisticians working on analyzing the movement of the odds. They would also be aware of how competing bookmakers are adjusting their prices. For instance, if the public betting is severely tilted to Home win, the statisticians involved may need to adjust the odds on the other side to make it more attractive to reduce the bookmaker liability. This is known as balancing the book.

Step 4: Typically, the starting price is released one week prior to the match. In the last few hours leading to the match, the statisticians involved would have received privileged information and developed a consistent opinion as to the likely outcome of the match. Here they may adjust their odds to better reflect their stand on the match and possibly increase profits. Tip: Identifying this movement can be critical to increase your own profits!

In conclusion, only through a thorough match analysis can the football trader or football better beat the bookmaker at his own game.



Source by Gabriel Khoo

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