It’s a betting obsession that has swept the horse racing world – the almost holy grail like quest to find false favourites that can be layer for profit with very little risk. At one point it would have been easy, back in the days where 99% of punters got all their info from the limited cards in the back of the newspaper.
But times have changed. Now you can examine every race a horse has ever run in great detail via the numerous websites and databases available on the internet. This means that low priced horses who don’t stand a chance don’t stay low priced for very long, as huge amounts of people can now identify them and lay them on the exchanges. This of course makes it a lot harder to find one of these mythical ‘false favourites’
So I’m going to share with you a simple method of profiting from laying very short priced horses. You see – it’s not a case of finding horses that will lose, it’s a case of finding horses who’s odds are shorter than their actual chance of winning. To do this we’re going to be using a simple technique that I like to call ‘Milking the Sunday punters’
The Sunday punters are a formidable force. I’m not referring to the people who happen to place a bet on a Sunday of course; I’m referring to the people that have no real knowledge of horse racing and will normally just bet for fun. You’d think that these people are of no significance – I certainly used to. That was until I had a little think about it…
Did you know that if you had laid £100 on every odds on horse in a Class 1 race over the past 6 years, you would have made a profit of £2,970 to betfair SP? Whilst I wouldn’t advise blindly laying these horses, by simply looking for small things that could cause them to lose and using a staking plan – I personally have made over £4,000 in the last 3 years alone. Of course these aren’t the sort of profits that will buy you a summer house in the Riviera, when you consider the tiny amount of effort required to spot such bets it’s not the sort of money to turn your nose up at.
Now, if you’ve seen some of my other betting material you will know that I’m highly critical of people who use statistics without any logic behind them, so let me explain the logic that causes these horses to be so profitable to lay…
Class 1 races are high profile, they are the ones always featured in the papers, the various racing TV shows and pundits will always spend a long time dissecting them before and after the race. This is why they are such a little gold mine.
The ‘Sunday punters’ are people who don’t bet on a regular basis, they normally bet only at the big racing festivals or high profile racing events (hence, selecting only class 1 races for this study). They aren’t looking to win risk big and win big, they want what they assume to be a safe bet – purely for the enjoyment of it. So they bet on the odds on hot favourites, the horses that already have short prices and receive a lot of attention from the pundits.
The result – hundreds of thousands of pounds (even millions) being bet on already short priced runners. This has the effect of driving the value out of the horse. Whilst a very good horse may have a 60% chance of winning a race, if that very good horse has been backed into 3/10 odds on then in order for that bet to offer any value (ie, when the odds are higher than the chance of winning) and even be considered as a profitable bet – it’s chance of winning would have to be at least 66.6%.
Horses don’t know how much money is being bet on them. Their chance of winning is EXACTLY the same irrelevant of it being priced at evens or 10/1. Backing such bad value horses would be stupid, the numbers are against you and overall you would always show a loss. But if you reverse that statement and lay the horse – you will show a profit.
So to summarize – look for odds on horses in class 1 races, see if there is are any factors (no matter how small) that may hinder them in the race, even if it’s as small as an unfavourable draw and lay them just minutes before the start of the race (as close to the start as possible for best results). Always pay very close attention to the big racing festivals and televised races (on the BBC or C4, where there a lot of people watching) and you will be guaranteed to find bad value horses just prime for the laying.